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[57]previous‘Titanic’ Resurfaces in Myanmar
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* August 20, 2012, 2:11 PM
Myanmar’s Growing, but Has a Long Way to Go
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By Patrick Barta
UPDATED AT 7 P.M.
YANGON–Myanmar may be poised for years of explosive growth. If so, it
has a long way to go before it comes close to catching up with its
neighbors.
European Pressphoto Agency
Paddy-field workers take a lunch break in Kawmhu township near
Yangon, Myanmar, on Aug. 3.
That tough reality is one of the themes that emerges in the latest
Myanmar report by the Asian Development Bank, released Monday, which
provides one of the most comprehensive pictures of the Myanmar economy
in years.
The report, “Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges,”
predicts that Myanmar’s economy will grow by about 6.0% in 2012 and
6.3% in 2013 on the back of commodity exports and a pick-up in foreign
investment – about as much as other fast-growing regional economies
such as Indonesia. It also suggests that Myanmar could grow at 7%-8%
per year for a decade or more, replicating the success of other Asian
economies, if the government continues to push more reforms after
giving residents more freedoms and floating the country’s currency over
the past year.
But the depths to which Myanmar’s economy sunk during its years of
military rule from 1962 to 2011 mean it could take years if not decades
for it to start catching up to many of its regional peers.
Consider some of these factoids from the ADB report.
* Only about 26% of Myanmar’s population had access to electricity in
2011, versus 100% in Malaysia and roughly 90% or more in the
Philippines and Vietnam.
* Only 1.26 people out of every 100 in Myanmar have fixed telephone
lines, versus roughly 16 in Indonesia, while only 0.03 out of 100
have broadband Internet subscriptions, compared to about eight in
Malaysia.
* Roughly 30% of Myanmar doesn’t have access to safe water.
The list goes on. Myanmar has 40 kilometers of roads for every 1,000
square kilometers; Vietnam has 480. Myanmar has 18 vehicles per 1,000
people, while Thailand has 370.
Myanmar’s economy in some ways has changed little since the 1960s or
otherwise fallen behind as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam
zoomed ahead. Agriculture accounted for 35% of Myanmar’s gross domestic
product in 1965; in 2010, it was 36%. Its per capita income in 1960 was
about $670, more than three times that of Indonesia and more than twice
that of Thailand. By 2010 it had the lowest GDP per capita in Southeast
Asia, at about $1,300 on a purchasing power parity basis.
There are some areas where Myanmar has made notable progress, the ADB
said. Its infant and maternal mortality rates have dropped considerably
since 1990, though they remain high, and adult literacy is now well
above 90%. Rice yields have increased steadily despite a lack of
irrigation and other infrastructure. Overall growth in recent years has
helped boost Myanmar’s foreign currency reserves to help buttress the
country against economic shocks, and policy makers have helped bring
inflation to manageable levels.
But the ADB noted that many experts believe Myanmar’s official economic
data may have exaggerated the growth that occurred in recent years.
Myanmar reported an average of 12% annual growth from 2000 to 2010, but
such figures “have been deemed overstated and rather unreliable” given
the country’s poor statistical capacity, the ADB said. It cited
International Monetary Fund figures that estimate growth averaged just
4.6% from 2002 to 2010.
Other data that tend to correlate with GDP growth was also far weaker
than official GDP figures would suggest. Cement sales, for instance,
only grew 1.8% per year from 2004 to 2009.
Ko Ko Hlaing, an adviser to Myanmar President Thein Sein, said in an
emailed response to questions that it “may be true” that GDP figures
from 2002 to 2010 were not reliable because the country’s currency had
many values at the time, complicating calculations, and some regional
authorities may have exaggerated growth to please superiors. He said
it’s possible the actual rate of growth was somewhere between the IMF
estimates and Myanmar’s calculations, “but one can never find the exact
point.”
Part of Myanmar’s problem, no doubt, is that it has been subject to
tough Western sanctions that prevented Western firms from buying
Myanmar products or investing there, though economists believe policy
mistakes and over-reliance on inefficient state enterprises also played
a major role in the weak economy. Many experts believe one of the
reasons Myanmar’s government is finally changing after years of
military rule is that its leaders are disappointed in the country’s
poor performance compared with other Asian countries, and want to do
something about it.
Either way, Myanmar remains heavily dependent on just a few industries,
with more than two-thirds of its exports coming from three products –
natural gas, logs and legumes, the ADB said.
The country also faces major risks going forward, despite all the
recent excitement over reforms there. As Western [91]governments lift
sanctions and more investors charge in, the country could run into an
assortment of challenges that commonly bedevil frontier economies,
including inflation, exchange-rate instability, hot money flows, and
credit bubbles. Those risks are particularly acute in Myanmar due to
its relatively under-developed regulatory environment and immature
financial sector, with poor tax collection, an under-developed bond
market, and widening fiscal deficits.
The good news, ADB said, is that Myanmar is taking some important steps
to address some of its problems. After years of miserly spending on
health and education – it has been the only developing Asian country
that spends more on defense than education and health combined – it is
boosting health care and schools spending significantly, to 7.5% of
government expenditure in fiscal year 2012-13, from 5.4% a year
earlier. The budget for education is more than doubling in nominal
terms in fiscal year 2012-13.
Having the ADB back in Myanmar may also help. The ADB, along with the
World Bank, recently opened an office in Myanmar after suspending
lending to the country years ago after Myanmar became an international
pariah because of allegations of human-rights violations. The changing
environment in Myanmar means multilateral institutions can work there
again, though ADB officials stress Myanmar still needs to make good on
$504 million of arrears to the bank before more money can flow.
An important question is whether Myanmar’s government will institute
the kinds of financial-sector and other reforms needed to ensure it can
continue to afford its spending, including boosting its tax haul and
ensuring the country’s central bank has enough independence to properly
manage the economy. Growth may indeed take off in Asia’s newest
frontier market, but it’ll take a while to see whether its leaders have
the skill to manage it.
And here’s one other final, sobering statistic: If Myanmar’s economy
does manage to grow 7%-8% per year for a long stretch, it might still
only hit GDP per capita of $2,000–$3,000 by 2030. To many economists,
this is good news, since it would put Myanmar safely into the ranks of
middle-income countries, ADB said. But it’s still a far cry from its
peers. Malaysia’s GDP per capita in 2010 on a purchasing power parity
basis was nearly $15,000.
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+
o 9:47 am August 22, 2012
o Kyaw Nyunt wrote:
thankzzzz for the article. I think it is a great one.
Especially the comparison that you made Myanmar with other
country. As a Myanmar myself, we usually have had less chance
to read that kind of information about our country. In a sense
, though, it is a good thing for us to know that our
government still has lots of things to do in the future. And
for business men all over the world, it means our country
still have lots of business opportunities. We will need lots
of cars, phones, computers etc in the future.
*
+
o 9:10 am August 21, 2012
o pork wrote:
I believe that myanmar already reached the lowest point or the
darkest period during under millitary rule. It can’t get any
worse that that. Only if the government want to open more
reconciliation process, myanmar will be better in term of
moving forward. But Whether the government have genuine
inclusive for all myanmar (ethnics and armed forces)or not,
that remain to be seen.
The economic will only be better if the government implement
the policy of appointing the educated people instead of
millitary personnel in all government sectors. That will
create more changes in a positive manner from current
mismanaged policy.
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111. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/11/02/glory-days-at-myanmar-school-clouded/
112. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/11/02/glory-days-at-myanmar-school-clouded/
113. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
114. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
115. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/25/airasias-fernandes-seeks-listing-of-insurance-business/
116. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/25/ikeas-latest-stumble-new-ad-angers-thai-transsexuals/
117. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/25/catholic-churchs-new-envoy-to-malaysia-wants-closer-ties-with-muslims/
118. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/23/google-opens-office-in-manila/
119. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/23/indonesia-zeros-in-on-currency/
120. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
121. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/25/catholic-churchs-new-envoy-to-malaysia-wants-closer-ties-with-muslims/
122. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
123. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/23/google-opens-office-in-manila/
124. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
125. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/23/indonesia-zeros-in-on-currency/
126. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
127. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/18/rescuing-manilas-steel-church/
128. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
129. http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/01/15/who-owns-street-food/
130. http://asia-jobs.fins.com/?utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones&reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_apacwsjchirt
131. http://recruiter.fins.com/?reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_postapacwsjchirt&utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones
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133. http://www.fins.com/Finance/?utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones&reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_apacwsjchirt
134. http://it-jobs.fins.com/?utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones&reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_apacwsjchirt
135. http://sales-jobs.fins.com/?utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones&reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_apacwsjchirt
136. http://recruiter.fins.com/?utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones&reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_apacwsjchirt
137. http://recruiter.fins.com/?reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_postapacwsjchirt&utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones
138. http://www.fins.com/Finance/Sector/FinancialAdvisor.aspx?reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_SFapacwsjchirt
139. http://ie8.smoothfusion.com/WallStreetJournal/view.aspx
140. http://online.wsj.com/?mod=WSJDE_footer
141. http://www.facebook.com/wsj
142. http://twitter.com/WSJ
143. http://www.linkedin.com/today/online.wsj.com
144. https://foursquare.com/wsj
145. https://plus.google.com/117720626238470886461/posts
146. http://www.youtube.com/user/WSJDigitalNetwork
147. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/podcast.html?mod=WSJ_footer
148. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/rss_news_and_feeds.html?mod=WSJ_footer
149. http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/the-wall-street-journal./id364387007?mt=8
150. https://buy.wsj.com/offers/html/offerOns.html?trackCode=aap5c9sx
151. https://id.wsj.com/auth/log-in
152. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html#top
153. http://help.wsj.com/customer-service/?mod=WSJ_footer
154. https://customercenter.wsj.com/view/contactus.html?mod=WSJ_footer
155. http://www.subscribe.wsj.com/getweekendnow?mod=WSJ_footer
156. https://customercenter.wsj.com/view/ctdir/contactdirectory.html?mod=WSJ_footer
157. http://online.wsj.com/article/Corrections.html?mod=WSJ_footer
158. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/privacy-policy.html?mod=WSJ_footer
159. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/data-policy.html?mod=WSJ_footer
160. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/copyright_policy.html?mod=WSJ_footer
161. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/subscriber_agreement.html?mod=WSJ_footer
162. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/privacy-policy.html?mod=WSJ_footer#ad_choices
163. http://www.wsjdigital.com/?mod=WSJ_footer
164. http://www.wsjlocal.com/?mod=WSJ_footer
165. http://classifieds.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_footer
166. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/designtech-wsjModuleHome.html?mod=WSJ_footer
167. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/email-setup.html?mod=WSJ_footer
168. http://online.wsj.com/ksemail?mod=WSJ_footer
169. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-interactive-features-trends.html?mod=WSJ_footer
170. http://online.wsj.com/page/columnists.html?mod=WSJ_footer
171. http://topics.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_footer
172. http://online.wsj.com/public/page/guides.html?mod=WSJ_footer
173. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
174. http://www.djreprints.com/?mod=WSJ_footer
175. http://wsj.iamplify.com/
176. http://wsj.com/partner/?mod=WSJ_footer
177. http://online.wsj.com/conferences?mod=WSJ_footer
178. https://www.wsjsafehouse.com/
179. http://www.dowjones.com/careers.asp?mod=WSJ_footer
180. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
181. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
182. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
183. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
184. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
185. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
186. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
187. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
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189. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html
190. http://www.fins.com/?utm_source=wsj&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=dowjones&reflink=djm_modulewsj_widgetjobs_apacwsjchirt
191. http://online.wsj.com/
192. file://localhost/home/elfe/PROJET-MOT-SUR-LE-WEB/PAGES-ASPIREES/104.html