#[1]OpenOil RSS Feed [2]OpenOil Atom Feed [3]OpenOil » Feed [4]OpenOil
   » Comments Feed [5]OpenOil [6]How Wall Street reform could affect
   Iraq's oil industry [7]Why oil must be on the agenda in Rio [8]North
   and South Sudan: the biggest game of poker in the world

[9]OpenOil

     * [10]Home
     * [11]Services
          + [12]Oil policy
          + [13]EITI analysis
          + [14]Ten minute briefings
          + [15]Workshops and training
          + [16]Media consultation
          + [17]Educational material
          + [18]Conference material
     * [19]Current Projects
          + [20]Oil contracts booksprint
          + [21]Wiki Guides
     * [22]Research Themes
          + [23]Contract transparency
          + [24]Citizen Dividends & Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies
          + [25]Big Data
          + [26]EITI
     * [27]Publications
          + [28]Understanding Oil Contracts
          + [29]Oil Almanacs
          + [30]Exploring Oil Data
     * [31]About Us
          + [32]History
          + [33]Research Interests
          + [34]Values
          + [35]Upcoming Events
          + [36]The Team
          + [37]OpenOil in the press
          + [38]Contact Us
     * [39]Blogs

A window of opportunity in Burma

   Posted by [40]Sam Hatfield on Thursday, May 10, 2012 · [41]Leave a
   Comment

   Times are changing in Burma. Once it was risky to even say her name,
   now you can buy an Aung Sun Suu Kyi [42]t-shirt on the streets of
   Yangon. Suu Kyi has long been a symbol of hope for Burmese people;
   [43]David Cameron described her as a “shining example for people who
   yearn for freedom, for democracy, for progress” in his recent visit to
   the country. The [44]landslide victory for Suu Kyi’s National League
   for Democracy (NLD) party in April’s by-election has certainly given
   Burmese people real hope. Whilst parliament remains dominated by the
   ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and its allies,
   the prospect of open political debate is for the first time in decades
   starting to look realistic.

   There is talk of a palpable yet tentative sense that [45]political
   change is afoot. The end of 2010 marked [46]Burma’s first election in
   20 years and the long-entrenched military junta began to transfer its
   powers to a civilian government. Critics described the move as a proxy
   for continued military rule and say the vote was neither free nor fair.
   Yet perhaps to the surprise of many, the government has enacted a
   [47]wave of reforms, freed some [48]political prisoners, opened up a
   [49]direct dialogue with the NLD party, and has halted the construction
   of the widely [50]criticised Myitsone Dam – suggesting that they might
   finally be more willing to listen to both Burmese and international
   opinion.

   Whilst momentum for political change slowly builds, the Burmese economy
   is roaring to life:

   “Myanmar’s new government faces a historic opportunity to jump-start
   development and lift living standards. Myanmar could become the next
   economic frontier in Asia if, with appropriate reforms, it can turn its
   rich natural resources, young labor force, and proximity to some of the
   most dynamic economies, to its advantage.”

   This was the resounding conclusion of the [51]IMF’s May 2012 report.
   Strong medium term growth is predicated on a substantial increase in
   natural gas export revenues in the coming 5 years with the expected
   completion of Shwe and Zawtika offshore gas projects.

   The IMF’s figures put into perspective the growing importance of
   natural resource revenues to the economy of Burma. Although there are
   uncertainties over the extent that informal payments have funded the
   government in the past, natural gas exports are expected to contribute
   between 17%-20% to government revenues over the next five years. This
   year natural gas exports alone will officially contribute $2 billion to
   government revenue, and this figure will grow up towards $3 billion per
   year by 2018. By the standards of the world’s oil and gas big hitters
   an extra $2 billion is a mere blip on the accounts. But for a low
   income country with a government revenue of only $5.5 billion last year
   – it really is a significant amount. Add onto that the revenues due to
   come in from oil (expected to be [52]pumped at up to 240,000 bpd by
   CNPC), [53]gold, [54]copper, [55]nickel, [56]forestry activities and
   the Burmese economy will become increasingly reliant on natural
   resources. [By the way, no prizes for spotting the theme in the 5 links
   above]

   The most important factor here is that the extractive industries are
   becoming ever more crucial to the political economy of change in Burma.
   Military cronies have for decades benefitted from the informal flows of
   money from natural resources. As a whole range of Wikileaks cables
   reveal, the USDP has always had a [57]firm grip on the extractive
   industries. Not only do they make profits on exports, but
   they [58]benefit from payments by the international companies exploring
   and extracting their natural resources. Whether it’s a $7.5 million
   compulsory signatory bonus, or $5 million for cancellation fee, these
   are direct flows into government coffers, no questions asked.

   Whilst this stranglehold on Burma’s most lucrative sector continues,
   citizens remain in the dark as to how the great wealth that accrues
   from their natural resources is spent. Politics may be slowly changing
   in Burma. But so long as it controls the economic engine of the
   extractive industries, the government – not the Burmese people – will
   continue to decide Burma’s future.

   The IMF hint at the need for reform, placing a caveat on their growth
   predictions: Burma’s GDP is forecast to grow at 6% next year “if it
   pursues necessary reforms to take advantage of its rich natural
   resources”, said [59]Meral Karasulu, IMF mission chief for Myanmar.

   But I don’t think it’s enough for the IMF to recommend reforms that
   simply ‘take advantage’ of natural resources. As Burma steps
   tentatively towards a new chapter in its history, it must put the
   extractive industries at the centre of governance reforms. Aung San Suu
   Kyi emphasised the importance of transparency and accountability
   following the 2010 elections, and highlighted the crucial role it plays
   in fostering good governance of Burma’s natural resources (at [60]5:50
   mins): “It is because the public does not know what is happening to the
   revenues that we can’t do anything about using them more effectively…
   what we’ve always said is that there should be transparency and
   accountability to make sure that whatever deals there are, that they
   are to be to the profit, the benefit of the people”.

   There are [61]growing calls for the EITI to be introduced in Burma, and
   this would surely be a sensible step. Leading economist Joseph Stiglitz
   made clear his support for the EITI in Burma during a recent visit,
   arguing that the process would ensure that the “revenues that belong to
   the people, go to the people.” Hanna Hindstrom from Democratic Voice of
   Burma put forward [62]the case for EITI in Burma forcibly on the eve of
   the April 2012 elections: “If Burma truly hopes to embrace democracy,
   let alone become the ‘next economic frontier of Asia,’ transparency
   must be placed at the heart of its agenda. The EITI both can, and must,
   form part of that process.”

   Following her [63]visit to Burma at the end of 2011, EITI Policy
   Advisor Dyyeke Rogan said that in a small step towards change,
   ministers are starting to discuss the prospect of accounting for
   natural resource revenues. “We have to account for the money,
   particularly the revenue from sale of gas”, said U Win Tun, Minister
   for Environmental Conservation and Forestry.

   The political landscape of Burma is changing, and economic momentum is
   generating hope that Burma’s dark days are over. But for as long as the
   government’s grip on the extractive industries continues, the chances
   of revenues from natural resources being used in an equitable fashion
   remain slim. The time is right for the IMF, international community and
   Burmese civil society to push the idea of extractive industry
   transparency and provide thought leadership on how we might achieve
   this in the context of Burma.


     *
     *
     *
     *

     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     *
     * LinkedIn

   close
     *

       IFRAME:
       [64]//www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://openoil.net/201
       2/05/10/a-window-of-opportunity-in-burma/&send=false&layout=button_
       count&show_faces=false&action=like&colorscheme=light&font

     *
     *
     * [65]Tweet

   Category: [66]Asia, [67]Blogs, [68]Burma · Tags: [69]eiti, [70]natural
   gas, [71]oil, [72]oil revenues, [73]transparency

   Comments are closed.

Recent blog posts

     * [74]What’s at stake in Uganda’s oil bills?
     * [75]Facing climate change with “peak oil” down
     * [76]Yes but what do we REALLY know about the Niger Delta?
     * [77]South Sudan is surviving without oil — barely
     * [78]From Kampala – Uganda oil wiki launch in 3…2…1…

   [79]Real-time visitors monitor and live stats

   Copyright © 2013 · All Rights Reserved · OpenOil

   [80]NonProfit Theme v3 by [81]Organic Themes · [82]WordPress Hosting ·
   [83]RSS Feed · [84]Log in
   [85]Organic Themes

Références

   Liens visibles
   1. http://openoil.net/feed/
   2. http://openoil.net/feed/atom/
   3. http://openoil.net/feed/
   4. http://openoil.net/comments/feed/
   5. http://openoil.net/
   6. http://openoil.net/2010/08/29/hello-world-2/
   7. http://openoil.net/2012/05/08/why-oil-must-be-on-the-agenda-in-rio/
   8. http://openoil.net/2012/07/06/north-and-south-sudan-the-biggest-game-of-poker-in-the-world/
   9. http://openoil.net/
  10. http://openoil.net/
  11. http://openoil.net/
  12. http://openoil.net/oil-policy/
  13. http://openoil.net/eiti-analysis/
  14. http://openoil.net/10-minute-briefings/
  15. http://openoil.net/workshops-and-training/
  16. http://openoil.net/media-consultation/
  17. http://openoil.net/educational-material/
  18. http://openoil.net/conference-materia/
  19. http://openoil.net/
  20. http://openoil.net/contracts-booksprint/
  21. http://openoil.net/wiki-guides/
  22. http://openoil.net/
  23. http://openoil.net/contract-transparency/
  24. http://openoil.net/current-projects/dividends/
  25. http://openoil.net/big-data/
  26. http://openoil.net/eiti/
  27. http://openoil.net/
  28. http://openoil.net/understanding-oil-contracts/
  29. http://openoil.net/oil-almanacs/
  30. http://openoil.net/exploring-oil-data/
  31. http://openoil.net/
  32. http://openoil.net/history/
  33. http://openoil.net/research-interests/
  34. http://openoil.net/about-2/
  35. http://openoil.net/upcoming-events/
  36. http://openoil.net/about-2/the-team/
  37. http://openoil.net/news-and-reports/openoil-in-the-press/
  38. http://openoil.net/contact-us/
  39. http://openoil.net/openoil-blogs/
  40. http://openoil.net/author/sam-hatfield/
  41. http://openoil.net/2012/05/10/a-window-of-opportunity-in-burma/#respond
  42. http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/blogs/the_angle/2012/04/what_t-shirts_c.html
  43. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/apr/13/david-cameron-aung-sang-suu-kiyi-live
  44. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16546688
  45. http://vimeo.com/album/1837525
  46. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11715956
  47. http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/southeast/US-Encouraged-About-Reforms-Continuing-in-Burma-150021945.html
  48. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15269259
  49. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/burmamyanmar/9197201/Aung-San-Suu-Kyi-meets-Burmas-president-after-election-win.html
  50. http://www.mizzima.com/special/myitsone-dam-controversy/6004-burma-to-halt-chinese-dam-project-media-reports.html
  51. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/cr12104.pdf
  52. http://www.shwe.org/news-update/myanmars-leaders-face-a-new-environmental-dilemma/
  53. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/oct2011/2011-10-21-01.html
  54. http://www.burmanet.org/news/2012/05/04/irrawaddy-massive-land-confiscation-for-copper-mine-%E2%80%93-khin-oo-thar/
  55. http://www.dvb.no/news/china-to-break-ground-on-huge-burma-mine/15600
  56. http://www.globalwitness.org/campaigns/environment/forests/illegal-logging/burma
  57. http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=09RANGOON332&q=burma%20epet
  58. http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=09RANGOON235&q=burma%20epet
  59. http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/3790
  60. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkPLOduTYHk
  61. http://www.iesr.or.id/blog/?p=426
  62. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/30/16_ways_to_fix_burma_a_democracy_lab_special_report?page=0,15
  63. http://eiti.org/blog/secretariat-hoping-golden-future
  64. file://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://openoil.net/2012/05/10/a-window-of-opportunity-in-burma/&send=false&layout=button_count&show_faces=false&action=like&colorscheme=light&font
  65. https://twitter.com/share
  66. http://openoil.net/category/asia/
  67. http://openoil.net/category/blogs/
  68. http://openoil.net/category/asia/burma/
  69. http://openoil.net/tag/eiti-2/
  70. http://openoil.net/tag/natural-gas/
  71. http://openoil.net/tag/oil/
  72. http://openoil.net/tag/oil-revenues/
  73. http://openoil.net/tag/transparency-2/
  74. http://openoil.net/2013/01/24/will-uganda-ever-let-its-oil-flow/
  75. http://openoil.net/2013/01/18/peak-oil-is-no-more/
  76. http://openoil.net/2013/01/16/yes-but-what-do-we-really-know-about-the-niger-delta/
  77. http://openoil.net/2012/12/19/south-sudan-is-surviving-without-oil-barely/
  78. http://openoil.net/2012/12/17/from-kampala-uganda-oil-wiki-launch-in-3-2-1/
  79. http://www.codegravity.com/
  80. http://www.organicthemes.com/themes/
  81. http://www.organicthemes.com/
  82. http://kahunahost.com/
  83. http://openoil.net/feed/
  84. http://openoil.net/wp/wp-login.php
  85. http://www.organicthemes.com/

   Liens cachés :
  87. http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma%20-%20http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F%20(via%20@sociablesite)
  88. http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&t=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma
  89. https://mail.google.com/mail/?view=cm&fs=1&to&su=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&body=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&ui=2&tf=1&shva=1
  90. http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&source=OpenOil+Imagine+an+Open+Oil+industry...&summary=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
  91. http://www.myspace.com/Modules/PostTo/Pages/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&t=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma
  92. http://delicious.com/post?url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&notes=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
  93. http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&bodytext=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
  94. http://reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma
  95. http://www.stumbleupon.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma
  96. http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=edit&bkmk=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&annotation=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
  97. http://news.ycombinator.com/submitlink?u=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&t=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma
  98. http://reporter.es.msn.com/?fn=contribute&Title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&URL=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&cat_id=6&tag_id=31&Remark=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
  99. http://www.blinklist.com/index.php?Action=Blink/addblink.php&Url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&Title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma
 100. http://sphinn.com/index.php?c=post&m=submit&link=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F
 101. http://posterous.com/share?linkto=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&selection=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
 102. http://www.tumblr.com/share?v=3&u=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&t=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&s=Times%20are%20changing%20in%20Burma.%20Once%20it%20was%20risky%20to%20even%20say%20her%20name%2C%20now%20you%20can%20buy%20an%20Aung%20Sun%20Suu%20Kyi%20t-shirt%20on%20the%20streets%20of%20Yangon.%20Suu%20Kyi%20has%20long%20been%20a%20symbol%20of%20hope%20for%20Burmese%20people%3B%20David%20Cameron%20described%20her%20as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cshining%20example%20
 103. http://www.google.com/reader/link?url=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&title=A%20window%20of%20opportunity%20in%20Burma&srcURL=http%3A%2F%2Fopenoil.net%2F2012%2F05%2F10%2Fa-window-of-opportunity-in-burma%2F&srcTitle=OpenOil+Imagine+an+Open+Oil+industry...