OBSERVERS are still wrestling with the implications of a stunning piece of news out of Myanmar on September 30th. Thein Sein, the president, informed parliament that work on a huge $3.6 billion dam on a confluence of the Irrawaddy river in the north-east of the country would be suspended for the duration of his term in office, ie, until at least 2015.
The decision has provoked China, which has been building the Myitsone dam and would buy almost all of the electricity generated by the associated 6,000MW hydropower plant, into a rare public rebuke of a friendly neighbour. And critics at home and abroad have been taken aback by the reason Mr Thein Sein gave for the suspension: that it was “contrary to the will of the people”. That has not, in the past, been a consideration for Myanmar's rulers.
Like many members of his government, Mr Thein Sein is a former general. But the “civilian” regime that succeeded the military junta after rigged elections last year is trying hard to look different. The suspension of the dam comes after a series of conciliatory gestures, notably a meeting in August between the president and Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of Myanmar's opposition, who was freed from house arrest last November, just after the election.
That the new regime seems willing to antagonise China is the latest sign that things may really be different. Shunned by the West, Myanmar had been falling ever more closely into China's orbit. China is Myanmar's biggest foreign investor, followed by Thailand. A Chinese foreign-ministry spokesman has condemned the suspension of the dam and called on Myanmar to protect the rights of the Chinese companies involved.
Myitsone is one of the most important of China's many projects in Myanmar. The main investor is the state-owned China Power Investment Corporation, whose construction arm had already started work. On a visit to the site this year, The Economist's correspondent found that it had built supply roads and large pre-fabricated living quarters for the Chinese workers, cleared hillsides and moved the population to a resettlement village (pictured to the right).
Of a series of seven Chinese-built dams planned on the Irrawaddy, the Myitsone was to be the largest, and at about 150 metres (458 feet), one of the highest in the world. If completed, the dam's reservoir would flood an area the size of Singapore and drive more than 10,000 people, mainly from the Kachin ethnic group, from their ancestral lands. The area straddles territory controlled by the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), one of Myanmar's myriad insurgencies. Last May the KIO warned China that building the dam would lead to “civil war”. Since then fighting between government forces and the KIO's armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army, has increased markedly. Thousands of villagers caught up in the clashes have fled the area.
Hitherto suppressed environmental NGOs spoke out against the project. They were backed by Miss Suu Kyi, who in August wrote an open letter calling for a reassessment of the project. She has welcomed the suspension because “every government should listen carefully to people's voices.”
It is not just concerns about the environment or the people displaced that have raised hackles. There is widespread popular resentment against Chinese economic expansion within Myanmar, and against the large-scale immigration of Chinese nationals into northern Myanmar—estimates range from 1m to 2m—that has accompanied it. Many Burmese complain that Myanmar's states have become like provinces of China.
The government's decision to suspend the dam comes at a time when it is also showing more willingness to engage with the West. Barack Obama's special envoy to Myanmar was there in September. The regime has even been hinting that it might release at least some of its 2,000 political prisoners. Their continued detention makes it hard for Miss Suu Kyi to advocate the lifting of Western sanctions, and her support for sanctions makes it hard for Western governments to drop them. In an interview this week with the BBC, she urged caution in assessing the government's intentions, but expressed at least moderate optimism: “We are beginning to see the beginning of change.”
Among the many signals the regime is sending by suspending the dam is that it does not want to be dependent solely on its neighbours, especially China. The regime is trying to build bridges with both its opponents at home and its critics overseas. The danger is that the changes it is making may not be fast enough or fundamental enough to win big concessions from the West. And in the past, when engagement has failed, there has been no shortage of vengeful hardliners waiting to come out of the woodwork.
Readers' comments
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Indeed, a gutsy move. Though it seems like this leader actually cares about his citizens. Letting the dam be built would be letting the world know that China can get what it wants anywhere. But here they are saying no. The citizens will really respect him for this. Even if they lose possible revenue from it; money is definitely not everything.
This decision is incredible. I give Myanmar government props for finally listening to the people and even standing up to China! It seems like Myanmar is finally on track to be a better nation and a source of government that will listen to its people. China is certainly not happy with this rejection especially after how much preparation that had put into building this new dam. I wonder how this will affect relations between the countries and what other impacts it will have.
@ codyw92
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!!!
codym92 the dam was ordered closed down by the present Myanmar president and not China!!!
It is done in the name of environmental ground, is it sensible and logic!? Your can write your comments and I wish very much to have the honour in seeing it from you.
I will reply after seeing what you and the others' response!
China is having dealings with the entire world. They are rapidly exerting their influence in almost every place that will let them. They are increasing their economic and political power more and more every day.
Aung San Suu Kyi will continue to do great things for Myanmar. She hasn't even been free for that long, and she already has done powerful things. I think she will eventually rise in power until she does as much good again as she did when Myanmar was still Burma.
China almost has more influence in Myanmar than any native officials do - as evident when China suspended the construction of the dam. The Myanmar people don't like this, but there is not that much they can really do about it.
@ kellym11@vt.edu
Why and what are so wrong for Chinese investment in Myanmar?
China receiving most FDI since opening up to the world and she still remains very independent and self-reliance.
Can the world and especially those who viewed China with colored lenses be more sensible and more objective in writing their comments!?
MUST they be so stereotype!?
China didn't exercise hegemony and force her will upon others!
US always find China their whipping boy and this time their SENATE passed laws ridiculously classified China as "Currency Manipulation Nation" which will impose high taxes against all Chinese export to US!
The most idiotic of this law is US already closed down all their factories and moved same to China and come to the worst if US don't import from China they still have to import from Vietnam or Indonesia etc.
Can this law be admissible by the WTO is much in question!
It is like robbing Peter and give to John; My God, don't tell me the US SENATE is full of a bunch of fools!!!
It’s great to see that Myanmar wants to declare their independence. Unfortunately for them, they can’t do this without the wealth and influence of China. China’s influence in all world affairs is growing rapidly and so is their economy and power. China realizes that Myanmar needs them so they are taking advantage of this fact and influencing them to the fullest. China will help them develop their country further, which is what they need for now but hopefully in the future Myanmar will rely less on China, and become more independent and less influential.
Instability is the last thing Burma needs right now; especially since it is working its way to a true democratic election. The fact that fighting has broken out between the government and the resistance groups certainly doesn't help the process.
Myanmar is slowly becoming a more independent country. The influence of the Chinese and Thailand is diminishing from the country. Also, Aung San Suu Kyi has become a more relevant figure in Myanmar. After being released from house arrest, she has made herself noticed in the politics of Myanmar. Stopping the production of the dam shows that Myanmar is capable of making their own decisions not based on the influence of other countries. However, this move could be bad in that they planned on selling the power to China. This move by the president shows that Myanmar is truly moving towards a more democratic view as he takes into consideration the views of the people.
... my favorite ancient book....
sorry then.
PL123 wrote:
Oct 9th 2011 6:37 GMT
@ ChinaCat
Inform yourself better of Burma before writing your judgement. It is more than just investment.
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what's more than investment? since when the thug nation is sooo important to China? the Chinese civilization has been there for 5000 years (only 1000 years less than the Indian civilization I was told, lol), sometimes no action is far more important than action: stop all the investment please dear president, or even better stop that by Chinese ourselves, that shows them how important they really are to China, by the way, I made the judgement after reading my the ancient book that's called Art of War, what on earth!!! lol
tocharian wrote:
Oct 9th 2011 3:20 GMT
Right on, "it is more than just investment", it is a Chinese invasion.
Once Burma gets rid of all these illegal alien Chinese "bandit businessmen" and "PLA proxy armies", it will be on its way towards becoming a peaceful (if not a prosperous) country.
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yeah, right, you got a new punch bag which is called China, punch harder please me friends then from there you are going to be a peaceful (even a prosperous) nation, lol.
Its a great sign to see the government finally acknowledging the people in Myanmar. The people deserve and voice and Aung San Suu Kyi is the main reason why the people still have a fighting chance. I hope to see this success grow and the country become more developed in serving the people instead of the militarized government.
If the dam helps to prevent flooding in other regions it might be useful, but unfortunately it will flood other peoples' lands. I guess Myanmar is trying to avoid a civil war and this might be a good reason to not build a dam. China will be mad, but its better if the people of your country are happy.
Change in Burma has been a long time coming and its great for the people that the government is actually doing something, but I am unsure if this was the correct choice. I believe disagreeing with the Chinese at this point in time is not a good move. The Chinese economy could really help Myanmar move up in the world and continue to develop. But who knows what will happen now with future relations after the suspension of the dam
Stopping the construction of the dam is a HUGE step for Myanmar and the people of Burma. That bridge symbolized Chinese influence, and the stopping of the construction proves that Burma may actually be making advances towards democracy. Messing with a country as fiscally dominant as China is hard to do, and may not be the smartest move considering that some Chinese action is benefitting Burma. However, I will always be supportive of a country trying to to escape from the grasp of another country.
Right on, "it is more than just investment", it is a Chinese invasion.
Once Burma gets rid of all these illegal alien Chinese "bandit businessmen" and "PLA proxy armies", it will be on its way towards becoming a peaceful (if not a prosperous) country.
@ ChinaCat
Inform yourself better of Burma before writing your judgement. It is more than just investment.
I hail president's decision to stop the dam building, if only he did that earlier then our Chinese company lost less money.
the president should ban all the Chinese investment in his country, I see all the investment there are totally waste of money, we Chinese should consider our investment to be profit and use them on much better place, Myanmar is not a nice nation, it's a place that's run by bandits.
This is a very brave and smart move for the independence of Myanmar as a country. By suspending the building of the dam Myanmar contradicted what China wanted ensuring that as a country it will not become dependent on China. At the same time they are reaching out to the western parts of the world, which if they can change some of the working conditions in their industries Myanmar will have a whole new market for its Natural gas, Wood, pulses and beans, Fish, rice, clothing, Jade and gems exports.