Completion of the first phase of HS2, between London Euston and Birmingham, could be delayed by five years until 2031, the government has announced, and the cost of the high-speed rail network has soared to up to £88bn.
The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, told parliament completion of the full northern section of HS2, to Manchester and Leeds, would probably be pushed back by seven years to 2040.
He confirmed that the budget for the project had risen by £22bn from the official £55.7bn at 2015 prices. At today’s prices, HS2 is expected to cost between £81bn and £88bn.
The announcement on Tuesday, based on the findings of a report by the HS2 Ltd chair, Allan Cook, pre-empts the outcome of a review of the plans commissioned by the government and due to report next month.
Cook said the discovery of “significantly more challenging” ground conditions along the London-to-Birmingham route, which he expected to be repeated on the northern phase, was the biggest single factor in the additional cost and delay.
He said a staged opening between 2028 and 2031 for the first phase, under which there would be an alternative London terminus of Old Oak Common rather than Euston until 2030, was most realistic.
Phase 2b, the full high-speed line to Manchester and Leeds, may open between 2035 and 2040, Cook said.
Although Cook argued that the economic benefits of HS2 had been understated, the report will place the future of the controversial project in further doubt.
Plans to build the line have received overwhelming cross-party support in parliamentary votes, but polls suggest about half of Conservative party voters want it to be scrapped, a policy adopted by the Brexit party and the Green party.
Shapps said work would continue for now, including parliamentary consideration of a bill for phase 2a to continue work on the line from Birmingham to Crewe. Legislation to build this part of the route is nearing final approval, but a bill to construct phase 2b has been delayed.
The transport secretary has promised a “go or no go” decision by the end of 2019 after the government review reports back. It is being led by Douglas Oakervee, a former HS2 chair, and Lord Berkeley, a prominent critic who has long claimed the budget would need to double to cover the work.
Shapps said he was keen to give MPs the “full picture”, including cost estimates, although these may again be revised by the Oakervee review. He said the official budget figure risked “being misconstrued and understating the relative cost of the project, and indeed its benefits”.
He added: “We all in this house know we must invest in modern infrastructure to ensure the future prosperity of our country and its people … [but we should] subject every project to the most rigorous scrutiny and, if we are to truly maximise every opportunity, this must always be done with an open mind and a clean sheet of paper.”
Timeline HS2 - over-budget and behind schedule
High Speed Two Ltd is set up by the Labour government to examine possibilities for increasing high-speed rail capacity in the UK.
The project is split into two phases –œœ London to Birmingham forms phase one, with phase two extending the route to Manchester and Leeds.
The transport secretary, Justine Greening, announces the decision to build HS2.
A judicial review is called into the HS2 decision.
Lord Justice Ouseley upholds one of the 10 grounds for complaint about HS2 in the judicial review – the claim that the government had acted unfairly and unlawfully when consulting on compensation for homeowners affected by the route.
The prime minister, David Cameron, describes the project as "absolutely vital" as MPs approve funding. The high-speed rail (London-West Midlands) bill is formally introduced in parliament.
After freedom of information requests, a 2012 Department for Transport viability report into HS2 is released, revealing the department considered it unaffordable.
Allan Cook replaces Sir Terry Morgan as chair of HS2, after the latter fails to deliver the opening of the Crossrail project in London on schedule.
A report from the New Economics Foundation suggests HS2 will deliver the most benefit to London, and exacerbate regional inequality.
A fresh government review into HS2 is launched, expected to last a matter of weeks and produce a final report by the autumn into whether the scheme should be approved, amended or scrapped entirely.
The Conservative transport secretary, Grant Shapps, announces that full HS2 services between London and Birmingham will be delayed by up to five years to 2031, and that the final completion of the northern section of the high-speed rail network would likely be delayed by seven years until 2040. He also confirmed the budget had escalated from the official £56bn at 2015 prices to up to £88bn at today’s prices.
The proposed date for the start of the service.
Labour accused the government of having misled MPs and the public over the cost of HS2. The shadow transport secretary, Andy McDonald, said: “Successive Conservative transport ministers have shown themselves to be utterly incompetent and unable to oversee the finances and governance of HS2, among other infrastructure projects.
“This delay is bad news for the UK transport system as a whole and the north of England in particular.”
A spokesperson for HS2 Ltd said Cook’s report, published in redacted form by the government, found the project “remains a compelling strategic answer for Britain’s future transport needs”.
Preparatory work has started, including widespread demolitions in London and Birmingham, as well as purchases of properties along the route. A total of £7.5bn has been spent to date.
But the go-ahead for major civil engineering works has been delayed as HS2 and the preferred contractors have failed to come up with designs at an acceptable cost.
The contracts were awarded in 2017 by Chris Grayling, including a £1.4bn deal for tunnel building by a Carillion joint venture, shortly before the company went bust. Ending construction of HS2 at Birmingham would very be likely to prompt outrage in the north of England, where city leaders believe the extended line will provide economic benefits.
The line north of Birmingham was originally due to be completed by 2033. The prime minister, Boris Johnson, has promised high-speed links between Leeds and Manchester, although planned work was already in the pipeline.
Connecting Britain, a campaign group launched by business and political leaders in the north, said HS2 was “critical to the long-term success of the UK and all its parts”.
Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester city council, said: “For the north, it’s not either HS2 or NPR [Northern Powerhouse Rail], it’s both.”
Judith Blake, the leader of Leeds city council, said: “Through Connecting Britain, we are coming together to demonstrate our united support for the delivery of HS2 in full and integrated with Northern Powerhouse Rail as essential to achieving our growth ambitions.”
Anti-HS2 campaigners called for work on the project to stop immediately. Joe Rukin, of Stop HS2, said: “It is now absolutely clear that parliament and the public have been callously and systematically lied to in a calculated manner over the cost and schedule of HS2 for a number of years by senior ministers.”
