Institut Montaigne Did The French Regional Elections Reshuffle the Cards For April 2022? * * -- -- Surveys Did The French Regional Elections Reshuffle the Cards For April 2022? ARTICLES - 25 June 2021 -- -- In May we identified three likely scenarios for the French presidential elections of April 2022. In decreasing order of probability according to the polls, we predicted the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, the victory of Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and the election of Xavier Bertrand, from the Conservative party. In the aftermath of the regional -- Bertrand, from the Conservative party. In the aftermath of the regional elections, which took place on June 20 and 27, the three scenarios still remain possible. Their respective probabilities, however, might have been reshuffled. -- -- have been reshuffled. Admittedly, local elections differ from national ones, and for 63% of French people, these elections were mainly concerned with local issues, which is logical. Plus, turnout is historically lower in local -- which is logical. Plus, turnout is historically lower in local elections - there has been a steep decline since the 1986 election, which generated a 77% turnout, to 2015, when only 50% of voters showed up. But this time, France reached record-low levels: by comparison, -- -- which generated a 77% turnout, to 2015, when only 50% of voters showed up. But this time, France reached record-low levels: by comparison, this election only gathered 33% of the French electorate. It would therefore be presumptuous to draw strong and definite conclusions from a ballot for which two out of three registered voters did not show up. -- -- That being said, certain dynamics have clearly evolved, which could be telling for the outcome of the 2022 presidential elections. Five facts dominated the first round of June 20: -- -- The second round did little to turn the tide. However, it is not necessarily a given that any of these facts will still hold true at the presidential election ten months from now. So what should we be looking at instead? -- -- Of all the successes of the Right, Mr. Bertrand’s is the most remarkable. Six years ago, he collected 25% of the votes in the first round of the regional elections, while Marine Le Pen got 41%. This time, he got 41% while his Far-right opponent, Sébastien Chenu, only 24%. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron had appointed five serving Ministers as -- -- the most recent poll revealed by Challenges and according to the latest Opinionway survey, he could secure 20% of votes in the first round of the presidential elections. The procedure for appointing the Right-wing candidate for 2022, was announced on June 9 by Christian Jacob, president of the Les Républicains party. It will be based on two major -- -- polls conducted by IFOP unveiled the extent of the French paradox: although 67% of the French expect a similar outcome as the 2017 election opposing Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen, only 30% hope for it to happen. In fact, 70% would rather have new candidates for the second run of the presidential vote. -- -- mere "anti-Macronism". For now, a majority of French people do not want the re-election of Emmanuel Macron. So in the event of a second round involving both him and Xavier Bertrand, "voting against" the current president could -- -- Our conclusion, for now? Of the three scenarios imagined one month ago and listed in our introduction, that of the election of Xavier Bertrand as our new President seemed the least likely. Today - and we insist: -- as our new President seemed the least likely. Today - and we insist: for now - the election of Marine Le Pen is becoming ever less probable, while the re-election of Emmanuel Macron just became more complicated. -- -- They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Looking at precedents can help shed light on the possible scenarios for the 2022 French presidential elections: The time when a president was sure to stay in power and was effectively re-elected: Charles de Gaulle in... Next -- -- Next SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER for a handpicked selection of analyses each week Yes please * Commentaires